Alternative podcast – Capitol Crude conversation with Ellen about “Saudi, Inc.”
Question from Fullstream: Can OPEC stop the US shale industry?
Exports – US is now exporting oil on the global market but still at levels far less than Saudi Arabia or Russia. Huge difference in scale
Oil Reserves – OPEC says its reserves amount to 80% of global oil reserves. If Venezuela is eliminated due to difficulties accessing those reserves, makes a difference but still OPEC has way more in reserves that non-OPEC.
IEA – Until 2020 US, Canada and Brazil production will fulfill demand for oil but after that the lack of investment will make it difficult to meet demand.
HBR – “Oil’s Boom and Bust Cycle May Be Over: Here’s Why” – misleading article that doesn’t argue that oil will become less volatile just that the way that cycle looks will be different. Price volatility will be more frequent but swings will be smaller.
Rigcount from Drilling Info shows rigs staying stead and not skyrocketing for first 2 months of 2018. Shale isn’t flooding the market as was forecast by some.
Look at oil volatility – pre-1970 oil was very stable. So much more volatility since 2000 than in 20th century.
Mark Papa – Always been somewhat ahead of the curve. According to a WSJ article he plans to tell OPEC producers at CERAWeek this week that oil production forecasts for shale oil production are too high. But do OPEC countries really need to hear this from him?